On the tightening:
A new Pew Research survey "finds voting intentions shifting in the direction of Republican congressional candidates in the final days of the 2006 midterm campaign. The new survey finds a growing percentage of likely voters saying they will vote for GOP candidates. However, the Democrats still hold a 48% to 40% lead among registered voters, and a modest lead of 47% to 43% among likely voters."
However, another Political Wire story shows that dems still hold a real advantage -- their voters are more likely to actually vote. One indicator is that the RNC compensation for 'volunteers' has gone from $75 to $100 per day.
With just three days left until the midterm elections, a new poll commissioned by TIME shows that Republicans may be approaching voting day without one of the big advantages they enjoyed in November 2004 — their ability to motivate supporters to go out and vote. Among registered Democrats polled, 52% say they're more enthusiastic about voting than usual, compared with just 39% of Republicans. Thirty-seven percent of Republican respondents are less enthusiastic than usual, while only 29% of Democrats feel that way.
This may make the tightening of races for the Senate a wash. None of the polls mean anything if the respondents don't actually vote.
Which brings me to my point:
Don't assume that everyone's going to vote for you. You'll wake up Wednesday morning and an election will have taken place whether you voted or not, sure. But whether or not it turns out the way you wanted it to depends on whether or not people vote.
Both the 2000 and 2004 elections showed us that every vote really does count (even if some of those votes aren't counted). In a lot of districts, we need not only the votes it takes to win, but the votes it takes to win convincingly. Every close race will be contested. We don't just need to win in many races, we need to crush. We need a win with a buffer.
If you don't plan to vote, you're voting 'OK'. OK for war in Iraq, millions and millions of tax dollars poured down every rathole Republicans can find, continued corruption, continued lies. It means you're OK with torture and the loss of your civil liberties and you're cool with the loss of habeas corpus. It means you think we should concentrate on the snipe hunt in Iraq, while letting Afghanistan go south and standing on the sidelines with our hands in our pockets while a new Taliban rises in Africa.
If no one voted, nothing would change -- everyone who doesn't vote casts a de facto vote for the status quo. This democracy stuff doesn't work unless you get up off your butt and make it work. We have the opportunity to change the direction of the country.
In my district, we really don't have any gains to make. I have a Democrat in the House and one in the Senate (although I'm voting for the Green, Rae Vogeler, in that race) -- neither seat has a hope in hell of going Republican. It's looking like the Governorship's staying dem and I could go right down the line on my ballot. Most of my votes would be my predictions. The bluest county in Wisconsin -- and I'd guess one of the bluest in the nation -- will remain blue.
But other races are tight and we need you to go out and vote -- even if your electoral situation seems hopeless. The GOP are a lot more likely to stay home and the only real advantage they have left is that you won't vote.
Technorati tags: politics; elections; republican; democrat; voting; if you're cool with Iraq, corruption, and scandal, and crime, then by all means, don't VOTE!