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Tuesday, July 02, 2013

The GOP's Nosedive Among Latino Voters

A new poll by Latino Decisions [pdf] includes an interesting factiod -- in 2004, George W. Bush carried 40% of the Latino vote. The idea that Latinos are all automatically Democratic voters -- an idea pushed by anti-immigrant white nationalists -- is obviously untrue. The thing is, even as Latinos grow as a segment of the population, you don't need to win a majority of that particular demographic to win an election. You can come up short of half and make up for it in other populations. The Latino vote didn't used to be hopelessly out of reach for Republicans. That is, until the Tea Party came along and began worshipping racists like Arizona Governor Jan Brewer and Sheriff Joe Arpaio. Once that happened, Republicans were circling the drain with Latino voters.

Today, one of the very best performing potential Republican presidential candidates is Marco Rubio. And "best performing" isn't a whole lot to brag about.

The Hill: A new poll of likely Hispanic voters in the 2016 presidential election shows strong support for the two candidates seen as potential Democratic nominees: former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vice President Biden.

The survey, by Latino Decisions, also revealed Republican candidates continue to significantly trail among Hispanic voters, with even champions of immigration reform like Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush significantly behind top Democrats.


According to the survey, Clinton remains the most popular candidate among the Hispanic electorate, mirroring other recent national surveys. The former first lady is seen positively by 73 percent of likely Hispanic voters, while 17 percent have a negative view.

The candidate with the best chance against Clinton is Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who would lose the Latino vote to her 66%-28%. Clearly, the GOP has done a lot to damage their brand since the heady days of 2004. Rubio's chances increase substantially if comprehensive immigration reform passes -- 55% say they'd be more likely to vote Rubio if it passes. But the House is killing him. Recent moves to punish the children of undocumented people are extremely unpopular, with 75% saying the House's vote to defund the President's Deferred Action program makes them less likely to vote GOP. Wait until the ball really starts rolling and racist House Republican morons start opening their yaps about immigration reform. Once rank and file Republicans start talking like Ann Coulter, the jig is up.

Latino Decisions sums up their findings by saying, "Major Republican candidates have an opportunity to win 40% or more of the Latino vote if they demonstrate leadership on immigration reform." But that's as things are now, before it gets to be an issue in the House. When it goes big in the asylum, the GOP is going to wind up giving themselves quite a beating.

Those days of winning 40% of the Latino vote are probably far behind them,


[poll graphic from Latino Decisions]

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