Despite Outcome of State Supreme Court Race, Democrats Definitely Have the Momentum in Wisconsin

The race for Wisconsin's Supreme Court has finally ended and, after a recount, incumbent Justice David Prosser won over challenger JoAnne Kloppenburg, an assistant district attorney. In an editorial praising Kloppenburg for conceding, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel -- which did not support the recount -- had this to say:

In a normal year, Prosser, a judicial conservative, might not have faced much of a challenge for re-election. But Gov. Scott Walker's efforts to curtail collective bargaining for most public employees bled over into the judicial campaign. While the race was nominally nonpartisan, conservatives tended to support Prosser; liberals tended to support Kloppenburg. A vote against Prosser became, unfairly in our view, a vote by proxy against Walker.

If this is the case, then Gov. Scott Walker lost. Kloppenburg's supporters were outspent by 38% and in a four-way primary, the incumbent took 55% of the vote to Kloppenburg's 25% second place. It was one helluva gap and JoAnne Kloppenburg closed it to less than one half of one percent. If this was a pro- and anti-Walker election, it's not hard to see which side has the momentum. Had the primary results been even fractionally tighter, Kloppenburg would've won in a walk.

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Are the GOP's Recall Petitions a Bust or a Success?

By five o'clock central, we'll know whether Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate JoAnne Kloppenburg will ask for a recount in her close race against incumbent David Prosser. The deadline is today. As it stands now, the nonpartisan Government Accountability Board took a look at the Waukesha County vote total -- which put Prosser in the lead after the County Clerk found some 14,000 uncounted votes -- and found "no major discrepancies" in the totals. If you're wondering what a minor discrepancy is, join the club. The board didn't elaborate.

Whichever way that election goes, it's bad news for Governor Scott Walker and Republicans. Before Walker's attempt at union-busting, the incumbent was set to win reelection in a walk. It wasn't even going to be a contest. After only a few weeks of organizing time, pro-worker people narrowed the margin to a statistical dead heat -- if Prosser wins, he'll win by less than 0.5% as the numbers stand now. That's down from a 30-point lead in the primary. If everything goes David Prosser's way, Walker and Republicans will undoubtedly publicly claim they've been vindicated. But privately, they'll be sweating bullets. The final vote tally, even if their guy wins, will not be a good omen for the future.

However, it probably tells us very little about how recalls will go. The Prosser-Kloppenburg race was a statewide contest, while recall elections will be fought at a more local level. In some districts, Prosser ruined Kloppenburg. In others, Kloppenburg had Prosser for lunch. Looking at the state Supreme Court race to divine the outcomes of recalls is almost certainly a fool's errand.

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Is Prosser's Magic Lead the Result of Fraud or Just Incompetence?

Let's just say that there's cause for some skepticism here. On Tuesday, an extremely close state Supreme Court race between JoAnne Kloppenburg and incumbent David Prosser stretched into the night -- and then into the next day. By Wednesday, it was reported that JoAnne Kloppenburg had -- unofficially -- scored the slimmest of victories. With 100% of precincts reporting, 204 votes separated the two candidates, according to the count by the Associated Press. A narrow win, to be sure, but more votes are more votes -- the lead you officially need is one. Kloppenburg declared victory and the canvass of the votes began.

Then a funny thing happened. A whole bunch of Prosser votes suddenly appeared...

Wisconsin State Journal:

Incumbent Justice David Prosser gained a 7,500-vote lead in the hotly contested state Supreme Court race Thursday after the clerk in conservative-leaning Waukesha County announced she undercounted the votes because of an inputting error.

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Liberals Need to Take Court Races as Seriously as Corporations Do

The Wisconsin Supreme Court race stretched out through the night and into the early morning. By the time I finally hung it up at about two, it was already clear that a recount was in the cards. As it stands as of this writing, JoAnne Kloppenburg leads incumbent David Prosser -- 739,574 to 739,350. In other words, by next to nothing. Associated Press reports that three precincts are still out -- two in Kloppenburg dominated Milwaukee County and one in Prosser-heavy Jefferson County. So, right now, it seems that Kloppenburg will keep her slim lead and, perhaps, expand on it. Or not. Who even knows?

But it pays to remember that Prosser originally dominated this race with 55% of the primary vote. That means he's gone from shoe-in to losing, if only by a handful of votes. Prosser was going to win this in a walk, then everything got turned on its head. Republican over-reach comes with a price for conservatives.

Despite Prosser's complaints that he was attacked by special interests, Kloppenburg backers were outspent, making this the most costly Supreme Court race in Wisconsin history. Outspent and against a candidate who looked like a sure winner, Kloppenburg was able to close the gap and -- if barely -- overcome it.

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A Last Chance to Vote?

I get to vote today. I don't really see it as a duty -- although I believe it is -- but as a privilege. I get to vote today.

I confess that I'm still torn on my choice for mayor here in Madison. Between Paul Soglin and Dave Cieslewicz, I'm having a hard time imagining myself disappointed with an outcome -- which may be bad news for incumbent Mayor Dave. The Capital Times endorses Soglin, Wisconsin State Journal endorses Cieslewicz. That alone may be enough to finally seal the deal for me -- when in doubt, go with TCT.

But you don't care about that. There's only one reason for anyone outside this state and this city to give a crap about this particular election -- the state Supreme Court race between JoAnne Kloppenburg and David Prosser. There's more than just Scott Walker's union-buster at stake here -- conservatives hold a one seat majority on the court -- but also the fact that you get to vote. Like the union-buster, a voter ID bill (still in the works at this point) is headed for the state's highest court. This is an absolute guarantee. In other words, if Wisconsinites don't vote in this election, they may find it harder to vote in the next.

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Wisconsin Supreme Court Race is All About Scott Walker

Gov. Scott Walker and the Wisconsin GOP have lost. I don't mean that they've lost the fight to push their union-busting bill through -- although, to be sure, they're not having a lot of luck on that front. No, they've lost the argument. April 5 is a off-off-year election day in Wisconsin, the first since the anti-worker moves began, and I have yet to see a candidate who embraces Walker wholeheartedly. Instead, I see only quotes and ads from conservatives pretending Walker doesn't exist or from liberals who promise to "stand up to Scott Walker."

The highest profile race in this election cycle is for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, where incumbent conservative David Prosser faces liberal JoAnne Kloppenburg. Prosser won his primary with 55% of the vote. Kloppenburg took a mere 25%. Being a nonpartisan office, the post-primary election is basically a runoff. Those numbers suggested that Prosser would win in a walk. Prosser voters would stick with Prosser, everyone else would go with Kloppenburg -- at least, those who didn't go with Prosser. The incumbent would get his 55% and then some, coasting to an easy reelection.

But since that primary, things have changed. Prosser made the mistake of believing that the new governor's star was rising and his campaign told voters he'd be a "complement" to Scott Walker's governorship as a justice. He's been trying to take that back ever since and enjoying about as much luck as the GOP has been having with their union busting.

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Wisconsin Fight Not Over by a Long Shot

On Tuesday, Bob Schwoch -- a UW communications professor and a former chief of staff of two Wisconsin Republican state senators -- circulated an open letter to current Republican senators. Gov. Walker was leading his party to ruin, Schwoch warned, and he was doing it for reasons other than a love for Wisconsin.

This governor is not hard to read. He’s a giant fiery ball of ambition. When he sneezes he compares it to how Reagan sneezed. His first major act, after netting a modest 52 percent in a GOP wave election, was to pick the most dangerous and inflammatory political fight he could think of. His next major act was to propose a budget that might get him re-elected in Texas, but not Wisconsin. Why?

Clearly he doesn’t care about getting re-elected in Wisconsin. He doesn’t care about protests, or poll numbers, or recalls. He barely even cares if what he’s proposing passes. So long as he gets attention for proposing it.

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