If the Data Doesn't Support the Conclusion, Change the Data

Standard & Poors were in such a rush to get their downgrade statement out that the ink was barely dry on the first draft they sent out. As a result, the first time was most definitely not the charm.

Politico:

The draft press release, according to POLITICO’s Morning Money, included projections that overestimated U.S. debt by $2 trillion. The initial projections were the general government debt-to-gross domestic product ratio would rise to 81 percent in 2015 and 93 percent by 2021.

In the final release, those numbers were revised down to 79 percent and 85 percent, respectively. Treasury officials noted that the corrected numbers put U.S. debt in line with other AAA-rated nations, including the United Kingdom and France, arguing that the U.S. ratio won't reach France’s level for a decade.

In other words, S&P's initial assessment was BS -- and the corrected assessment is hardly any better. Basically, S&P chose a completely arbitrary number -- $4 trillion -- and demanded the US meet that number in debt reduction. And then, to prove that is was in fact a number chosen at random, the agency's own math is off by 50% of that Most Important and Special Sum.

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You Can't Fight Crazy -- But You Can Vote it Out of Office

I hate to say it, but part of me -- the "I told you so" portion of my brain -- wants the Republican Party to remain stupid, for the president to fail to convince them to come off the ledge, and for the US to default. This part of my brain feels that if we go over that cliff, Republicans (and the craziest Tea Party nuts especially) will have been proven wrong once and for all. After all the Tea Party, always more than happy to believe whatever horsecrap makes them more comfortable, is home to the idea of the default myth -- i.e., that if the debt ceiling isn't raised, the US won't default and anyone who says otherwise is just a commie spendthrift trying to scare you. My lizard brain thinks that when interest rates skyrocket, deficits get even worse, and unemployment goes through the roof, then they'll see...

But, of course, a more rational part of me knows that this is a fruitless hope. After all, didn't I just say that they believe whatever they want to believe? You can't convince them with proof. They'll just come up with some crazy argument that the US didn't default, that the administration held back its secret hoard of money to punish Republicans at the polls. When you're dealing with people who engage in magical thinking, "proof" is a meaningless word.

Unfortunately, it's looking more and more like the "I told you so" portion of my brain may get some satisfaction. As the August 2 deadline approaches, there are few signs that the nuts are becoming saner and that reality will finally sink in. And while that may not happen to the looniest Republicans, it's happening to their traditional backers and enablers.

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