The Word of the Day is "Compromise"

I'm not going to bother to look it up -- it's just an anecdote anyway -- but after George W. Bush beat John Kerry one sad day, CNN ran a poll asking if people were happy with election results. Surprise, surprise; the poll found that the exact same percentage of people who voted for Bush reported being happy that Bush was reelected. At the time, my response was "well duh!" Basically, when you ask people if they're happy that the person they voted for won, they're going to say yes. And if you ask them if they're happy their candidate lost, they're going to say no. So, I saw this poll as a big waste of time. You really didn't need to be a psychic to know which way it would turn out. About the only good thing I could think of to say about it was that it was obviously accurate.

CBS news has engaged in the same waste of time and it turns out I owe CNN an apology. I didn't have a blog back then, but I talked smack about you CNN guys to my friends. Sorry about that. Because this time, it wasn't a waste of time at all. I suppose there was a chance it wouldn't be then, either. It turns out that after giving Republicans a big day at the polls, we aren't exactly excited about the results.

While 40 percent do say they are pleased by the election outcome, that's a significantly smaller percentage than the 58 percent who were pleased following the 2006 midterm elections.

CONTINUE TO POST>>

Relentless

I think I've probably brought this up before, but humans are obsessive and relentless. Other than our intelligence, that's our evolutionary advantage. As predators go, we're slow and weak. How did we survive before we developed weapons? By being the most unrelenting chase predator in the world. We're built to run. Not fast, but for a long time. It's why we sweat.

You spot a gazelle and you chase it. It bounds away easily, getting far enough ahead that it feels safe. And then we're there again, tracking it. It runs, it stops again, we catch up. It runs, it stops again, we catch up. Our weapon isn't stealth or strength or speed, it's endurance. We exhaust our prey. It's in our nature. And the prey's belief that it's far enough away to be safe is its undoing.

I bring this up because Republicans are the gazelle right now. They're way freakin' out there, far enough to forget they're involved in a chase. And we're behind them, relentless.

CONTINUE TO POST>>

GO VOTE!

It's the big day. Like Superbowl Sunday, only important. This is going to be a short one. I'm still waiting to hear back from Wisconsin Democrats, but I'm afraid I might've signed up too late to get a slot on a phonebank today. He who hesitates is lost, I guess. Luckily, I've still got a blog with some reach, so you people GO VOTE!!

Normally, I plan out my morning post beforehand, but today I'm winging it. All I really want to do is get you out that door and into the polling place. GO VOTE!!

Did I mention yet that you should GO VOTE? I hope so, because you should definitely GO VOTE!!

CONTINUE TO POST>>

Get Out The Vote

This is my last long form post before election day and my last report on phonebanking for Wisconsin Democrats. Right now, I'm watching Rep. Chris Van Hollen, head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, defend his prediction that dems will retain their majority in the House of Representatives on MSNBC. But Van Hollen is engaging in punditry -- there's little evidence to back up his claim, other than stronger than normal turnout among Democrats in early voting. But that higher early turnout is to be expected. News that the GOP-supporting business groups had planned a $75 million dark money push in the final days of the campaign caused Democrats to push early voting -- i.e., "vote now, before a wave of attack ads change your mind." Because of this last-minute push, Republicans didn't want people to vote early -- or, at least, not as badly as they might in another cycle. Still, it might make the difference in many races.

Gallup reports that "52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot -- depending on turnout assumptions." And everyone agrees that turnout is the key. The danger of lower turnout here is not only a Democratic concern; some Republicans may be so convinced of the inevitability of the "big Republican wave" that they think they needn't bother. Call it the "Tortoise and the Hare scenario." This also may make a difference.

Yesterday, I spent a couple hours on the phone at the teachers' union hall here in Madison. My contacts were mostly positive and the campaign is focusing on Get Out The Vote efforts. If turnout is the key, then turnout is the top job. Democrats seem to feel that a 4% increase in projected turnout in key districts will be enough to pull it out for both incumbent Senator Russ Feingold and gubernatorial hopeful Tom Barrett. My guess on which districts these are: Madison and Milwaukee. Wisconsin Democrats have a larger team of volunteers than in any other state, thanks in part to efforts by MoveOn.org.

CONTINUE TO POST>>

The White Party

Way back in August of 2008, with presidential campaign in full swing, then DNC chair Howard Dean accidentally told an interviewer at NPR what he really thought. "If you look at folks of color, even women, they're more successful in the Democratic Party than they are in the white, uh, excuse me, in the Republican Party," he said, "because we just give more opportunity to folks who are hard-working people who are immigrants and come from members of minority groups." Of course, calling Republicans the "white party" was the worst thing ever.

"Howard Dean's comments on race and gender today are disappointing and wrong," responded Dean's GOP counterpart, Mike Duncan. "His efforts to divide Americans are an insult to all our nation's citizens and have absolutely no place in the national dialogue."

Yeah, about those "efforts to divide Americans":

CONTINUE TO POST>>

Want to Lose in 2010? Then be a Moderate

I actually feel a little sorry for this guy. Meet the most hopeless candidate of the 2010 midterm election cycle, Republican Chad Lee, running for Wisconsin's second congressional district.

Statistical wizard Nate Silver gives Lee's opponent, incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin, a 100% chance of winning reelection. Not 98%, not 99%, but a sure bet -- as sure as the sunrise. She voted for TARP, the healthcare reform bill, and the stimulus package. She's the only openly lesbian member of congress. She opposed Bush's war and torture policies. She's pro-choice and pro-same sex marriage. There's video of her dancing with crossdressers at a Madison Gay Pride rally (which is awesome). If Barack Obama is a commie, then Tammy Baldwin is off the scale. She's the leftiest leftist in all of leftiedom, with the possible exception of Dennis Kucinich. And she's a leadpipe cinch for reelection. It's such a certainty that the race isn't even getting local coverage. Seriously, some people are going to be surprised to see her on the ballot and will wonder who this other guy is.

And Chad Lee? He's a perfectly average Republican candidate. A made-for-TV handsome young white fella, he's crazy enough to qualify as a teabagger, but not crazy enough to stand out in the current crop of lunatics his party is putting on the ballot nationwide. He's not losing because he's incompetent. In another district, against another candidate, it's not hard to imagine him as the frontrunner. Here, he's nobody. The GOP has completely given up on this seat -- and on Chad Lee.

CONTINUE TO POST>>

Debate in the Rightwing Blogosphere: Pro- or Anti-Head-Stomping?

What fun! Here's Wisconsin Republican senatorial candidate Ron Johnson receiving an award for his tireless work on behalf America's most downtrodden minority -- gazillionaires.

I'll admit to laughing when they finally realize they've been punked and drag the guy away. I don't like Ron Johnson -- at all -- but I'll give him and his staff credit for being good sports about the whole thing. They're all smiles as they realize they've been had.

This is more than can be said for Rand Paul supporters outside the Kentucky senatorial debate last night:

Those "don't tread on me" flags teabaggers are so fond of have just become ironic.

CONTINUE TO POST>>

Is Russ Feingold Actually Leading? It's All About the Cell Phones

Madison Teachers Inc. is in a small, blond brick office building. It's the kind of building you might expect to find in an industrial park and seems out of place in Madison's funky coop-shopping, granola-crunching, Williamson Street neighborhood, where Victorian is the dominant architectural style. It seems odd then that few people I've talked to knew where it was -- you'd think it'd stick out like a sore thumb and, therefore, be memorable. Still, it's easy to find from the handful of campaign yard signs out front and the hand-lettered "Welcome volunteers!" banner on the entrance door.

This is my second shift of volunteer work for the Wisconsin Democratic Party. My first shift was at the Feingold campaign headquarters, located in what used to be a bar just off the Capital Square. I sat in a storefront window and made calls with a well-used campaign cell phone. This time, I sit in a white conference room with campaign literature taped to the walls, in between framed posters celebrating the ethnic diversity of Wisconsin school children. But if the locations of the phone banks are very different, the experience is very much the same.

In both cases, a mostly older crew of volunteers (say, 40 and up, with retirees well-represented) are supervised by very young campaign staffers. There isn't one staffer I wouldn't ask for an ID before serving beer. But experience tells me that the young are better suited to campaign politics; they've still got that learning gene switched on, so they're quick on the uptake and still used to crunching numbers --  and, believe me, they're doing a lot of that. They're figuring contacts per hour, ratio of Republican to Democratic contacts, percentage of people who say they'll definitely vote compared to those who just say "probably," percentage of early voters by district, etc. Trust me, every number is compared to another one and broken down into a percentage or ratio. A big chunk of behind-the-scenes campaign work is analyzing data. These are the front lines and the battle is fought with phones and calculators.

I'm given a seat at a folding table, a list of names with phone numbers, and a cell phone. Then it's dial, dial, dial. There's cookies, soda, and a little chit-chat, but mostly we just dial. The work ethic of a volunteer is a wonder to behold.

CONTINUE TO POST>>

Don't Like Being Accused of Racism? Then Stop Being Racist

It's almost a joke, because it's almost funny. After the NAACP released a report on tea party ties to racism, the right is in fits. It's a "smear," they insist with all the indignation their little hearts can muster. It's the worst thing ever and it's just not true, they complain. But here's the punchline -- as they insist they aren't racist, they do nothing to hide their racism.

For example, on news that Democrats are doing well in early voting, a major force in the tea party movement -- FreedomWorks CEO Dick Armey -- went on Fox News to declare that it was a sign that blacks are stealing the election.

Get that? We've got to be on the lookout for voter fraud, which is "pinpointed to the major urban areas. The inner city."

CONTINUE TO POST>>

One Hispanic News Source Defends "Don't Vote" Ad -- Meet Fox News Latino

Yesterday, I wrote about the Republicans' never-ending search for people to hate. About a month and a half back, it was all about hating the Muslims. This started to get a little out of hand, so undocumented immigrants became the new group to hate -- a frequent target earlier this year. But this is starting to cost them voters, so now they seem to be in search of a new scapegoat. Without an internal US enemy, Republicans find it difficult to operate.

For now, the target is still illegal aliens. And, since this is costing them voters in the Latino community, they've come up with what might be the most painfully obvious voter suppression scheme ever devised -- beg Hispanic voters not to vote.

CONTINUE TO POST>>

Republicans in Search of New Scapegoat to Hate

"We hate Muslims! Grrrr!"

Republicans had hoped to ride a wave of fear and hatred into office, because that's what they do. So they glommed onto the cause of a lunatic backwater blogger, helping to whip up a frenzy of terror over a community center project in Manhattan. It all went pretty well for a while; gullible people really did start freaking out, terrified that the "Mosque at Ground Zero" (which isn't a mosque and isn't at ground zero) meant that terrorists were building a "victory mosque." This went on for a while, but the wave crested too soon and things started to get a little out of hand. "Hot issue" became "hot potato" and suddenly the Park51 project wasn't so important anymore. The Summer of Hate was over and the prospect of a long Autumn Without Hate loomed. It mustn't be allowed to happen.

Since the Cold War, Republicans have been nothing without enemies. They aren't a peacetime party. We're still at war, sure. Two of them, in fact. But the problem with long wars is that they become wallpaper -- if it's always there, you stop noticing it. Muslims were perfect enemies, because it reinforced the far right belief that Bush's War on Terror was really a war against Islam. The wars, although widely ignored now, could be reflected at home. And, like the Cold War communists, terrorists could be everywhere Republicans wanted them to be. So don't think they've dropped the "Muslim automatically equals terrorist" propaganda. It just got a little too hot there for a while, so they had to put it down for a bit. It'll be back.

But Republicans found themselves without enemies within. The "we hate gays!" wedge they'd previously used to divide the electorate had become dull; the GOP may hate them, but most people don't. Polling shows the public is split on the subject of same sex marriage, for example, with opinion moving rapidly against the "we hate gays" position. That territory is being lost, so it was time to retreat from it as well. Who would be the interim boogeyman, scaring the electorate until it was safe to demonize Muslims again?

CONTINUE TO POST>>

Driving Elections While Hammered on Foreign Money

Imagine a world much like our own. In this world, drunk driving is just as illegal as it is here. Everyone agrees that intoxicated drivers are a menace and the world would be a much safer place without them. But, in this world, it's also illegal to pull a driver over and check to see if they're intoxicated. People who aren't crazy argue that this check would be essential to enforcement and we ought to start doing it, while people who are crazy argue that enforcement is unnecessary -- after all, drunk driving is illegal, so no one will do it, right? If someone's weaving all over the road, they probably have a good reason and pulling them over to see what that reason is would be an invasion of their privacy. Drunk driving has been eliminated by making it illegal and, if you need proof of that, then just look at the record -- no arrests ever. Success!

This alternate reality may strike you as a little on the stupid side, but welcome to the world of American politics post-Citizens United v. FEC. Foreign money in federal elections is still illegal, but there's no way to pull a candidate over to find out if they're soused on foreign money. Candidate X may be positively hammered on Bahraini dinars or Russian Rubles, but -- by the easiest money-laundering scheme in the world -- there's no way to prove it, because there's no way to check.

That's what we're beginning to see play out with the US Chamber of Commerce. The Chambers is running millions of dollars worth of attack ads across the nation and no one can find out for sure where the money comes from.

CONTINUE TO POST>>

Making Every GOP Candidate Choke on Their Tea

Toward the end of last month, I wrote that everyone was nationalizing the craziest teabagger candidates -- that is, everyone but the Democratic Party. If dems put Republicans on the spot with positions held by out-of-state nutjobs, those Republicans would be forced to either reject Tea Party orthodoxy or embrace craziness. The last thing a candidate wants to do is spend a lot of time explaining that they're not Christine O'Donnell -- for more than one reason. My argument went like this:

The only avenue left to dig Democrats out of the hole is to point out the obvious and the undeniable -- a lot of these people are crazy. And not the fun-at-a-party kind of crazy, the bad kind. Put Republicans on the spot, make them defend these lunatics or cut them loose. Are you with Rand Paul on the Civil Rights Act? Do you agree with Alaska senatorial candidate Joe Miller that federal unemployment benefits are unconstitutional? Do you agree with Sharron Angle that Social Security should be phased out and the Department of Education shut down -- or that rape can be a blessing in disguise? Give Republican candidates a choice: appeal to the teabagger base or to the rest of the electorate. It's a situation most won't benefit from. Advantage becomes predicament, since most of that GOP enthusiasm comes from the feverish base. And that's not enough in all cases.

It seemed like a no-brainer to me. And now it seems that the Democratic Party has come to the same conclusion. Run against the crazies, no matter what race you're in.

CONTINUE TO POST>>

Every GOP Senate Candidate a Flatearther

I've decided that exercise is bad for you. Every time you light a candle, it gets shorter. Every time you take a drink of water, the glass gets emptier. Every time you draw off a battery, it's useful life gets shorter. Besides, I'm not the world's biggest fan of exercise, so this works out better for me.

Of course, this requires ignoring decades of research and the established opinion of the medical community. But I don't need some fancy-pants, ivory tower elitist medical degree. Common sense tells me that the more I work out, the worse off I'll be. It's a declaration I feel totally qualified to make: stop exercising everyone, it's killing you. It's all just a big scam to sell gym memberships and Gatorade. I don't care what your doctor might tell you, I'm just relying on good old American horse sense. And isn't that always better? It's certainly easier to understand than this pie-in-the-sky science stuff.

The above is basically the argument offered by global warming deniers. Sure, there are a few actual scientists who don't believe in global warming, but the vast, vast majority accept it. And the majority of people offering opinions contrary to the scientific consensus aren't scientists. So the odds are extremely good that anyone speaking against anthropogenic global warming is basically making my "no exercise" argument -- I'm ignoring decades of research, I'm ignoring the opinions of experts, and I'm going with my gut on this one. Besides, global warming is just as inconvenient for me as Al Gore said it was, so the science must be wrong. End of story.

CONTINUE TO POST>>

Fearing the Youth Vote

Item from the Statements of the Obvious Department: Barack Obama is trying to get out the youth vote. In my final post yesterday, I wrote about this. Allow me to quote myself for a moment here:

What you're seeing here is the Democrats taking a page out of history. In 1998, Russ Feingold was in a tough reelection fight for his second term. In fact, it looked like he was going to lose to construction company owner Mark Neumann. But Madison's Rep. Tammy Baldwin ran a pretty substantial get out the vote campaign on the University of Wisconsin campus to boost her own election prospects (it was to be her first term) and that brought out dems who also voted for Feingold. After the smoke cleared, Tammy had won a decisive 53% and Russ came out with 50.55% of the vote. A real squeaker for Feingold, but a win's a win.

The moral of this story: turn out the UW and Democrats win in Wisconsin. Ironically enough, Big Red is one of the things that keeps Wisconsin blue. Politically-engaged University of Wisconsin students, faculty, and union members are the party's not-so-secret weapon. Here's hoping history repeats itself.

CONTINUE TO POST>>

"Pledge for America" Just GOP Bait and Switch

House Republicans released a new "Pledge for America" [pdf] today in Virginia. The document begins by riffing on the Declaration of Independence and the following ideas aren't a whole lot newer. "Bold" and "fresh" aren't really words you'd use to describe it. "Hyperbolic" might be a good choice, though. "An arrogant and out-of-touch government of self-appointed elites makes decisions, issues mandates, and enacts laws without accepting or requesting the input of the many," we're told. President Obama and Democrats in Congress apparently appointed themselves into office. It's weird, but that's not the way I remember it. I seem to recall a few very decisive elections.

Anyone who remembers 1994's Contract with America will also remember that it really didn't go anywhere. Newt Gingrich's "Republican Revolution" began to revolve back the very next election cycle and everything went downhill from there. "Gingrich, and the freshmen congressmen who signed on to the contract, thought they could turn the House of Representatives upside down and reverse the process: Issue a political agenda and demand it be approved, virtually without hearings or debate," wrote Connecticut columnist William Torpey in 1996. Government doesn't work this way, because government wasn't designed to work this way. Worse, the ideas that House Republicans spell out are bad ones to begin with, much like they were in contract version 1.0.

Ezra Klein:

Their policy agenda is detailed and specific -- a decision they will almost certainly come to regret. Because when you get past the adjectives and soaring language, the talk of inalienable rights and constitutional guarantees, you're left with a set of hard promises that will increase the deficit by trillions of dollars, take health-care insurance away from tens of millions of people, create a level of policy uncertainty businesses have never previously known, and suck demand out of an economy that's already got too little of it.

CONTINUE TO POST>>

Putting Republicans on the Crazy Train

I've never actually been seasick, but watching Gallup's weekly polling going into the midterms gives me an idea what it must be like. At the end of August, Republicans scored a ten-point lead -- which Gallup called "unprecedented" -- in their generic congressional ballot. The press went crazy. Then, a week later, that lead was gone. Both parties were tied. This didn't match the media narrative, so this poll was widely ignored. A week later, the GOP had regained half that lead. But now this week, it's gone again, with Democrats leading by a statistically insignificant 1%. Up, down, up, down. I think I'm gonna barf.


Click for full sized graphic

It's hard to make any sense of this at all, other than to say that public opinion, while leaning Republican in recent months, is definitely in flux. And that it really doesn't take much to knock the GOP back a step. But the polling does come with a caveat; Republican voters are still more excited about voting. According to Gallup, a lot more.

CONTINUE TO POST>>

A Wedge Issue Becomes Too Hot to Use

It's an example of how stupid our national discourse has become. On September 11, the Portland Press Herald in Maine ran a front page story on Eid al Fitr, the Muslim holiday marking the end of Ramadan. It was the worst thing ever, according to some readers, and editor Richard Connor felt the need to issue a front-page apology the next day.

We made a news decision on Friday that offended many readers and we sincerely apologize for it.

Many saw Saturday's front-page story and photo regarding the local observance of the end of Ramadan as offensive, particularly on the day, September 11, when our nation and the world were paying tribute to those who died in the 9/11 terrorist attacks nine years ago.

We have acknowledged that we erred by at least not offering balance to the story and its prominent position on the front page.

CONTINUE TO POST>>

Voting Against the Fat Cats

If you follow this blog even occasionally, you're probably familiar with the truism that people don't vote for things, they vote against things. Like all simple rules, it's probably not 100% correct 100% of the time, but it's true enough to help understand what would otherwise be confusing behavior on the part of the electorate. In fact, if you need some way to understand the way voters are behaving in this cycle, you really don't need to look any farther. People are voting against Democrats, not for Republicans; it's just that this is a two party system and voting against one requires casting your vote for the other.

For example, a new New York Times poll [pdf] shows that 51% disapprove of President Obama's performance on the economy and 55% would vote out (i.e., against) incumbents. And then it gets interesting.

Greg Sargent, The Plum Line:

But the internals show the public disapproves of the GOP even more (68 percent), overwhelmingly thinks the GOP lacks a clear plan to solve our problems (72 percent), and opposes GOP policies like extending the Bush tax cuts for the rich (53 percent).

CONTINUE TO POST>>

Republican Teapot Begins to Boil Over

The headline I would've run was "Delaware Democrat Wins Senate Race Months Early." Tea Party activists managed to elbow out moderate Republican Mike Castle to advance Christine O'Donnell as the Republican nominee fill to replace Joe Biden's vacated Senate seat. But Politico's headline was close enough; "GOP nightmare: O'Donnell prevails."

The Republican Party backed Castle, conservative outlets like the Wall Street Journal editorial page and the Weekly Standard begged Delaware Republicans to nominate Castle, but the teabaggers were bound and determined to nominate a bona fide lunatic. They've had enough of politics as usual, which apparently means considering politics at all, and have nominated a woman who can't possibly win -- because she's not a "RINO." As a result, the slim chance Republicans had of taking control of the Senate just got a lot slimmer.

Jason Easley, Politicususa:

Before everyone starts jumping off the cliff over Christine O'Donnell's victory, here are a few things to keep in mind. First, Christine O'Donnell is not popular in Delaware. According to recent Rasmussen survey, O'Donnell has an approval rating problem. More votes disapprove of O'Donnell (44%) than approve of her (39%). In contrast, the man she defeated Mike Castle has a 67% approval rating. O’Donnell’s November opponent Chris Coons has a 49% approval rating. In short, the people of Delaware are very familiar with Christine O’Donnell and they don’t like her.

CONTINUE TO POST>>