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Showing posts with label 2012. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2012. Show all posts

Monday, May 23, 2011

The GOP's Self-Laid Medicare Trap

The Paul Ryan economic trainwreck budget plan is dead. While not killing it outright, Senate Republican leadership have all but abandoned it. And even if it had ever gotten to the president's desk, it would've been vetoed. The path to survival for Ryan's fantasy-economics porn looks nonexistent and the whole idea exists only as a statement of principle. And that principle isn't being widely embraced by the party.

It may be that Newt Gingrich did Democrats and liberals a tremendous favor by establishing the Ryan plan as a sacred cow. By criticizing it, Newt embarked on what was the worst political week in recent history and set the groundrules for any other Republican campaigns -- the Ryan plan is the most perfect and brilliant piece of legislation ever written and Republican candidates criticize it at their peril.

Which is why Democrats are so eager to make it a campaign issue. Let me correct that; Democrats want to make it the campaign issue. Polling shows that Ryan's plan is about as popular as a fart in an elevator, making it a perplexing hill for House Republicans to choose to die on.

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Raw Chicken Sandwiches are More Popular

Sarah Palin and Charlie Sheen
Call it "Adventures in Random Polling." Turns out there's some really bad news for Sarah Palin on the public opinion front.

Public Policy Polling:

We've found a lot of brutal poll numbers for Sarah Palin so far in 2011: down in South Dakota, down in South Carolina, down in Arizona, only up by 1 point in Texas, only up by 1 point in Nebraska to name a few. But this has to be the worst -- independent voters say they would support Charlie Sheen over Palin for President by a 41/36 margin. Seriously.

Despite her deficit with independents Palin does lead Sheen 49-29 overall. We also tested Barack Obama against Sheen and the President leads 57-24.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Sarah Palin, Queen of Spades

Queen of SpadesAn interesting set of statistics and analysis from Mark Gersh for CBS News:

Fresh off a major shift in power in the House, we might expect another volatile congressional election in 2012.

Here's why: this year, 25 races were decided by 3 percent or less in the major-party vote share (13 Democratic and 12 Republican) pending recounts and final vote totals. Another 30 were decided by three percent - eight percent (18 Democratic and 17 Republican). Forty-two more races were decided by just 8 percent - 12 percent (25 Democratic and 17 Republican).

Friday, November 12, 2010

The Word of the Day is "Compromise"

Handshake
I'm not going to bother to look it up -- it's just an anecdote anyway -- but after George W. Bush beat John Kerry one sad day, CNN ran a poll asking if people were happy with election results. Surprise, surprise; the poll found that the exact same percentage of people who voted for Bush reported being happy that Bush was reelected. At the time, my response was "well duh!" Basically, when you ask people if they're happy that the person they voted for won, they're going to say yes. And if you ask them if they're happy their candidate lost, they're going to say no. So, I saw this poll as a big waste of time. You really didn't need to be a psychic to know which way it would turn out. About the only good thing I could think of to say about it was that it was obviously accurate.

CBS news has engaged in the same waste of time and it turns out I owe CNN an apology. I didn't have a blog back then, but I talked smack about you CNN guys to my friends. Sorry about that. Because this time, it wasn't a waste of time at all. I suppose there was a chance it wouldn't be then, either. It turns out that after giving Republicans a big day at the polls, we aren't exactly excited about the results.

While 40 percent do say they are pleased by the election outcome, that's a significantly smaller percentage than the 58 percent who were pleased following the 2006 midterm elections.

Monday, October 18, 2010

Specifics? Who Needs Specifics When You Don't Plan to Do Anything Anyway?

Earlier this month, Think Progress put together a video of Republicans weaseling out of answering what specific cuts they would make to reduce the deficit. They've decided that ending Bush's tax giveaway is off the table, despite the fact that it's a budget buster, so cuts to make up for it would have to be drastic and deep. With that in mind Senator/Congressperson/candidate, what would you cut?:



The popular explanation for why Republicans can't name any cuts they'd make is because they refuse to. That they want to make what would be unpopular cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid to pay for their tax giveaway to the already wealthy. Robin-Hood-in-reverse -- robbing from the poor and middle class to give to the rich -- is not a popular position. So Republicans choose to hide their true position, waiting until they're safely installed in office to cut the social safety net they've all hated for decades. Maybe this is true and maybe not, but I think my explanation for this is probably a lot closer to the mark.

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

The Right Thing To Do is Nothing

Former military personnel wearing 'Fired under 'don't ask, don't tell' tshirts
It's a situation where the most consequential move may be doing nothing. Yesterday, U.S. District Judge Virginia Phillips issued an injunction barring the enforcement of the military's policy of "don't ask, don't tell." As a result, that policy is -- for all intents and purposes -- dead. It can't be enforced here, it can't be enforced overseas, and -- one would assume -- it can't be applied to astronauts in space. We now live in a universe where the US policy of DADT cannot be applied. Not surprisingly, some are having trouble accepting this new reality.

Associated Press:

Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Wednesday that abruptly ending the military's "don't ask, don't tell" policy as a federal judge has ordered would have enormous consequences.

A day after a judge in California ordered the Pentagon to cease enforcement of its policy barring gays from openly serving in the military, Gates told reporters that the question of whether to repeal the law should be decided by Congress, and done only after the Pentagon completes its study on the issue.

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Voting Against the Fat Cats

Wall Street street sign
If you follow this blog even occasionally, you're probably familiar with the truism that people don't vote for things, they vote against things. Like all simple rules, it's probably not 100% correct 100% of the time, but it's true enough to help understand what would otherwise be confusing behavior on the part of the electorate. In fact, if you need some way to understand the way voters are behaving in this cycle, you really don't need to look any farther. People are voting against Democrats, not for Republicans; it's just that this is a two party system and voting against one requires casting your vote for the other.

For example, a new New York Times poll [pdf] shows that 51% disapprove of President Obama's performance on the economy and 55% would vote out (i.e., against) incumbents. And then it gets interesting.

Greg Sargent, The Plum Line:

But the internals show the public disapproves of the GOP even more (68 percent), overwhelmingly thinks the GOP lacks a clear plan to solve our problems (72 percent), and opposes GOP policies like extending the Bush tax cuts for the rich (53 percent).

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Republican Teapot Begins to Boil Over

Boiling teapotThe headline I would've run was "Delaware Democrat Wins Senate Race Months Early." Tea Party activists managed to elbow out moderate Republican Mike Castle to advance Christine O'Donnell as the Republican nominee fill to replace Joe Biden's vacated Senate seat. But Politico's headline was close enough; "GOP nightmare: O'Donnell prevails."

The Republican Party backed Castle, conservative outlets like the Wall Street Journal editorial page and the Weekly Standard begged Delaware Republicans to nominate Castle, but the teabaggers were bound and determined to nominate a bona fide lunatic. They've had enough of politics as usual, which apparently means considering politics at all, and have nominated a woman who can't possibly win -- because she's not a "RINO." As a result, the slim chance Republicans had of taking control of the Senate just got a lot slimmer.

Jason Easley, Politicususa:

Before everyone starts jumping off the cliff over Christine O'Donnell's victory, here are a few things to keep in mind. First, Christine O'Donnell is not popular in Delaware. According to recent Rasmussen survey, O'Donnell has an approval rating problem. More votes disapprove of O'Donnell (44%) than approve of her (39%). In contrast, the man she defeated Mike Castle has a 67% approval rating. O’Donnell’s November opponent Chris Coons has a 49% approval rating. In short, the people of Delaware are very familiar with Christine O’Donnell and they don’t like her.

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

The Future of Evan Bayh

Evan Bayh is running for president.

Bayh reelection button with 2010 scratched outFor about five minutes early this week, that story got a little traction. And then it fell apart on examination. It all began when Larry Sabato, a respected political scientist at the University of Virginia decided to twitter, "When Bayh said, 'I'm an executive at heart,' might have been hinting at POTUS run in '16, not just an IN GOV bid in '12." So maybe, in the far-flung future, Evan Bayh might consider running for president. Then again, maybe not. The bigger question would be, at this point in time, who even cares?

That story got picked up by Ryan Grim at Huffington Post, who grabbed the wheel of the baseless-speculation-mobile and floored it. "Let's stir [the rumor pot] even harder," Grim wrote. "Could Bayh, who backed Hillary Clinton for president in 2008, jump into a primary against Obama in 2012 from a conservative direction? His resignation speech touched all the Clintonian bases, from welfare reform, to budget cutting to a strong national defense with a reference to 9/11 thrown in." A centrist Democrat managed to sound like another centrist Democrat -- what are the odds? As evidence for a presidential run goes, it was pretty weak.

As I said, this lasted about five minutes, political time. By Monday morning, the rumor was dead. On MSNBC's morning yack program, Evan Bayh himself shoveled dirt into the grave. Asked on Morning Joe if he had any plans to run for president, Bayh answered, "None, whatsoever."

So that was fun while it lasted...





Of course, it was obvious that Bayh wouldn't run in '12, because -- as Matthew Yglesias points out -- "talk of Evan Bayh somehow challenging Barack Obama for the 2012 Democratic nomination is bizarre. No incumbent president has ever been defeated in a primary." This means that it's a purely activist endeavor. You do it to try to pull the incumbent to the left (assuming said incumbent is Democrat Barack Obama). There's no reason to run to the right of the incumbent in the primary, since he's certain to run against a conservative in the general. Evan Bayh, a conservative-leaning Democrat, would have absolutely no reason to want to do that -- especially considering that his reason for quitting was that things are too contentious and partisan in Washington. Why on Earth would he want to run a doomed, ideologically-driven leftist campaign in '12?

And, despite his complaining about DC partisanship, his timing in retiring -- whatever his reasons -- was deeply partisan.

The Hill:

Republicans are livid about the timing of Sen. Evan Bayh’s (D-Ind.) retirement announcement.

They have at least four candidates in the upcoming primary while the Indiana Democratic Party will get to decide its nominee.

Indiana required nominating petitions to be filed by noon Tuesday. Bayh announced Monday he would not seek reelection, giving would-be candidates less than 24 hours to get on the ballot.

Republicans have four candidates who made the deadline and a fifth whose signatures are being validated. Democrats had no serious successor in position, given that Bayh had already his filed his nominating petitions and had $13 million in bank.


No Democrat was able to meet Indiana's filing requirements. Those requirements are completely insane -- seriously, this is awful for a citizen-based democratic process. In order to get on the primary ballot, you have to collect 500 signatures from each congressional district -- 4,500 in all. So the Indiana Democratic Party gets to choose the candidate they think has the best chance of winning. No primary battles to be won or lost and no money to be wasted in those battles. This is a tremendous advantage.

But, as good as that is for Democrats, I'm not extremely happy with it. The primary system was designed to do away with this exact thing -- party flacks chosen in the infamous "smoke-filled room" by other party flacks. It's a formula for corruption. As much as I enjoy hearing Republicans squeal, I have to concede their point. If the situations were reversed, I'm certain I'd complain about it too.

What Bayh will do with his $13 million is an open question. He can hold onto it and use it for a run for a different office, but that seems unlikely. Speculation aside, he's said he has his eyes on the private sector. I'm inclined to take him at his word. A Bayh spokesperson says he hasn't decided what he'll do with the warchest, "But you can expect him to be helpful to the nominee." A chunk -- if not all -- of $13 million to spend in the general election, with no primary opponents to worry about. Pretty sweet.

No wonder people think Evan Bayh might become a lobbyist. That makes way more sense than a presidential candidate.

Because, if everything works out in the end, he'd have at least one senator already bought and paid for.

-Wisco


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Wednesday, February 10, 2010

'Bipartisan Solution' is an Oxymoron

Flintstones clubLike a lot of kids from my generation, I grew up watching The Flintstones. It wasn't very funny, but I was a kid, it was colorful, and that was good enough. After all, this was the same generation that thought Scooby Doo was the best thing ever, despite the fact that every single episode was almost identical -- different location, different villain in a different costume, and that was it.

Needless to say, I don't see a lot I still find funny when I look back. Except the boxing matches. That was a great idea. You get two cavemen in a boxing ring and they take turns whacking each other over the head with a club. I think this is pretty funny still, but I'm a deeply disturbed man.

Anyway, this is what "bipartisanship" looks like to me. One party offers a suggestion and the other side beats the hell out of them for it. Then the other party offers a competing suggestion and they take their turn getting the crap knocked out of them. It's absurd, it's stupid, it's ineffectual, and it's surprisingly popular.





A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds that the public likes bipartisanship, but doesn't find a lot of it in Washington.

Nearly six in 10 in the new poll say the Republicans aren't doing enough to forge compromise with President Obama on important issues; more than four in 10 see Obama as doing too little to get GOP support. Among independents, 56 percent see the Republicans in Congress as too unbending and 50 percent say so of the president; 28 percent of independents say both sides are doing too little to find agreement.


In this Flintstones boxing match, Republicans are clearly losing. The "no healthcare reform ever" message is losing -- the GOP is seen as the most partisan and "nearly two-thirds of Americans say they want Congress to keep working to pass comprehensive healthcare reform."

This realization of defeat is even admitted to by a large percentage of Republican voters -- 44% see their party leaders "as doing too little to strike deals with Obama," while only 13% of Democrats are "worried about inaction on Obama's part."

The GOP's partisan obstructionism becomes especially apparent after reading a post by Ezra Klein. In it, Klein points out that Republicans demand certain reforms -- and that every one of those reforms are in the Senate healthcare bill. In other words, the GOP gets everything they want in that legislation and they're still running to FOX News hourly to explain how it's the worst thing ever.

"On Sunday, John Boehner and Mitch McConnell responded to Barack Obama's summit invitation by demanding Obama scrap the health-care reform bill entirely," Klein wrote yesterday. "This is the context for that demand. What they want isn't a bill that incorporates their ideas. They've already got that. What they want is no bill at all. And that's a hard position for the White House to compromise with."

The real Republican position isn't that plans for healthcare reform are bad -- it incorporates all of their ideas -- the real position is that Barack Obama must not suceed in passing a bill. See, that spoils the narrative they're constructing that Obama is a hopelessly ineffectual president. If people think Obama's doing a good job, then the "big Republican year" in November is in jeopardy and 2012 is out the window entirely.

Meanwhile, 45,000 people will die this year from a lack of healthcare coverage. To put this into perspective, 9/11 killed 3,000 people. In response, we had to run off and invade Iraq right now, we had to throw out civil liberties and privacy, and begin torturing people. We began a war that served no purpose, abandoned principles this nation was founded on, and flushed $3 trillion down the toilet.

The crisis we're in right now will kill 15 times as many people as 9/11 and Republicans argue that there's no big rush. I guess we should be happy they aren't lifeguards or paramedics -- they'd show up and save you in a year or so.

Unfortunately, the same can be said of Obama and the Democrats. The president has issued yet another call for bipartisanship. How often does that paleolithic pugilist have to smack you over the head with a club?

On the bright side, there are signs that the idea of a bipartisan solution is on its last legs. Obama won't rule out budget reconciliation to pass a bill and reports have it that he chewed out John Boehner over obstructionism in a private meeting.

Bipartisanship may be popular, but so is Santa Claus -- and both are as likely to start offering solution in DC any time soon. The belief in the public's love of bipartisanship is misplaced; quick, name your favorite law. Was it bipartisan? Do you even know? Do you even care?

On the other hand, one bipartisan bill jumps readily into my head -- the authorization to use force in Iraq. Aren't the results more consequential than the process?

The time has passed to put the idea of bipartisanship behind us. It'd be nice, but it's not going to happen -- Republicans will make sure of that.

It's also not even remotely necessary.

-Wisco


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UPDATE:

MSNBC's Rachel Maddow explained the problem with seeking bipartisanship last night, thoroughly and inarguably.



A-freakin'-men.

Monday, February 23, 2009

The Grandstanding Old Party

Now that the stimulus has passed, you might think the time for Republican grandstanding was over. Thing is, you'd be wrong for thinking that. It's out of Congress's hands and into the those of the states -- and it's there that some Republican governors are using it to make political hay. They're doing this by pretending to reject the stimulus funds for their states.

But this is only a sham rejection -- they're making a big deal about rejecting a tiny portion, as if these drops in the bucket amounted to some sort of real savings. Case in point, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal.

Associated Press:

Gov. Bobby Jindal says he doesn't want Louisiana to tap into $98 million in stimulus money for expanding unemployment benefits for people who wouldn't normally be eligible to receive them.

The federal stimulus package would cover the benefits for a period of time, but the Jindal administration says it requires a permanent change in state law that would force businesses to pay higher taxes once the federal dollars run out.

Jindal said Friday that he doesn't support that change, which is tied to $32.8 million in stimulus cash. Without that change, the state also can't access a separate $65.6 million pool of unemployment money in the stimulus bill.


The problem here is that all that stuff about a "permanent change" isn't actually true. The stimulus would've funded the program for three years, at which point he could've phased it out. Last time I checked, "permanent" wasn't synonymous with "three years." In pretending to both misunderstand the bill and stand up for Louisiana's businesses, Jindal is throwing away benefits for 25,000 of his taxpayers. Keeping people broke is a hell of an economic recovery plan. Louisiana is allocated nearly $8 billion in the bill, Jindal's turning down $98 million. For every dollar of stimulus he accepts, he'll turn down roughly $0.01.

Yeah, that's a real profile in courage.





If Jindal and other governors theatrically and dishonestly "making a stand" won't take the money, other state execs will.

Raw Story:

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has a very simple message for any GOP governor who doesn't want federal stimulus package money earmarked for his or her state: "I'll take it."

"I feel very strongly that I think that President Obama right now needs team players," Schwarzenegger said Sunday morning on ABC's This Week George Stephanopolous. "It's a very difficult time now, where we have to play together, rather than using politics and always attacking everything," he said.


He's not alone in this sentiment. "You better believe I'm going to take every dollar that is coming to Michigan and if my colleagues here, Minnesota and South Carolina, don't use theirs, I'm going to be first in line to say for my people, for our citizens, to put people to work and to make sure they can survive through this," said Michigan Democrat Jennifer Granholm on FOX News.

As I said, Bobby Jindal's not the only Governor making a big deal of turning down a penny in stimulus money -- using the same pretense. Mississippi's Haley Barbour has said he'd also reject $50 million for the same program for the same reason.

"Once the federal money is gone we would have to replace it with state money, which means we would have to raise the unemployment insurance tax on employers," he said.

South Carolina's in the same boat. Despite having the third-highest unemployment rate in the nation, Republican Governor Mark Sanford goes farther than Jindal or Barbour -- threatening to turn down $2.8 billion.

Of the three, two -- Jindal and Sanford -- are openly considering presidential runs in 2012. The base hates the stimulus -- mostly because they'll believe anything some moron with an R after their name tells them. And turning down a portion of it -- no matter how inconsequential -- scores big with the chumps. So what if unemployment continues to rise in their states? They've got political points to score.

But it may not cost them in unemployment. "[T]here may be a 'beggar thy neighbor' strategy going on here," writes Matt Yglesias. "If Louisiana makes its unemployment benefits less generous than what’s available in other states, then maybe unemployed citizens will leave Louisiana for Texas and other neighboring states, thus creating an artificial appearance of an improved economic situation. It would be the equivalent of Mike Bloomberg fighting poverty by demolishing all the low-income housing in New York and hoping the poor people all move elsewhere."

I'm not sure I'd call this a "beggar thy neighbor" strategy, so much as a "Vlad the Impaler" strategy -- Vlad once wiped out poverty in Romania by killing all the poor. The easiest way to reduce unemployment isn't to get people jobs, it's to get rid of the unemployed. And all this costs these governors is the sacrifice of taking $0.99 instead of a buck. What a hardship. You wonder where these would-be future presidents would chase the unemployed to at the national level.

When all is said and done, Jindal, Barbour, and Sanford are just playing games. They're taking a high-profile bill and using it for a PR stunt. Since they're Republicans, they don't offer any real solutions, they just say "no."

The time for Republican grandstanding is never over.

-Wisco