The Wisest Choice

Full disclosure, straight up front -- I voted Obama in Wisconsin's Democratic Primary yesterday. I didn't faint in the voting booth, I wasn't brainwashed into a cult by inspiring speeches -- I did something crazy like look at reality.

For example, it turns out that John McCain is freakin' insane. Not only is he cool with staying in Iraq for up to a million years, but I can't think of a time when he voted against any sort of military action. As a potential president, John McCain is basically George W. Bush without the mangled english. In other words, someone who has no business anywhere near "the nuclear football" and someone who's absolutely guaranteed to make lousy foreign policy decisions.

So, if I really don't want to ever say "President McCain," I need to look at the numbers. And the numbers show me that Obama's the guy for the job. The latest USA Today/Gallup poll shows Clinton losing to McCain -- albeit barely -- 48% to 49%. Obama, on the other hand, beats him easily, 50% to 46%.

And look at what happened last night. Obama exceeded expectations (including my own), turning what was predicted to be a fairly close race into a win by 17%. In Hawaii, were he was expected to do well, he did amazingly well, pulling 52% of the vote.

As I predicted, Obama took Madison and Milwaukee, which have long been the keys to the state. But he also took pretty much everything -- losing in only ten counties. He took urban Wisconsin, rural Wisconsin, blue collar Wisconsin, and white collar Wisconsin. He took a bite out of demographics that Hillary had counted on -- and that may mean bad news for Clinton in Ohio. That's a "must win" for Clinton.

All of which says, to me at least, that Obama has an awesome ground game. And if, when November rolls around, the numbers are close, then that's going to make all the difference in the world. If the last poll before the primary was correct, Obama owned those last minute decision-makers, taking the lion's share of that 11% undecided. Obama's a closer.

The Clinton campaign has been saying that she's "ready on day one." But here we are, months before day one and she has nowhere to go. She's losing ground in her core demos. Wisconsin was the first state where she went negative -- and it didn't work. At this point, she's tried everything and nothing's working. She's already done the campaign shakeup; no dice. Looking back at her campaign, it looks like her entire strategy was to assume she'd already won. Her theme of "experience" seems to rely on her husband's experience more than her own.

And her inability to rally Wisconsin, which actually should've been one of her strengths, shows a deeply flawed strategy. Her argument, that Obama's message of change rings hollow, didn't really connect. And, as Clinton has gone negative, Obama's message has allowed him to stay positive, while answering her charges.

At this point, McCain is pretty much unstoppable in his own race for his party's nomination. Huckabee's just building up a list of donors and contacts to become the next Pat Robertson -- at this point, even a miracle is impossible. Unless McCain keels over Cincinnati, Huckabee is out. Staying in at this point serves no purpose other than building an evangelical contact base.

Reuters gives us our closing argument, straight from Hillary Clinton's mouth. "It's about picking a president who relies not just on words but on work, on hard work," she said. "We need to make a choice between speeches and solutions, because while words matter greatly, the greatest words in the world are not enough unless you match them with action."

My point exactly. Looking at the Obama campaign's ground game, we see someone who's willing to work hard and that hard work is translating into an incredible string of wins. You don't win if you don't convince people and you don't win without some leadership. That's part of the genius of modern democracy -- the primaries are a proving ground for the general election. And Barack Obama's proved himself very capable.

No, I didn't get caught up in soaring rhetoric, I didn't fall under the spell of some electoral Svengali, I didn't find myself drunk with hope. I made what I felt was the wonkiest, most logical choice I could.

And I chose Obama.

--Wisco

Technorati tags: politics; elections; 2008 ;primary; Iraq; war; Bush; Hillary Clinton; John McCain; Wisconsin; Hawaii; I'm ready to say it -- Barack Obama '08

Wisconsin Votes -- and Freezes

I got up this morning, poured a cup of coffee, and turned on CNN. Big election day here in Wisconsin, so I hoped there'd be something about the primaries. There was -- in Hawaii.

I hate those people so much. They're out there, doing a man on the street thing, talking to people in shorts and t-shirts. Meanwhile, here's my forecast as I go to the polls:

TODAY:
Partly sunny this morning, then turning cloudy with areas of flurries or light snow developing later in the day--mainly west of Madison.
High: 11
Wind: W/SW 5-15 MPH

TONIGHT:
Light snow this evening with minor accumulations under an inch; partly cloudy, windy and very cold overnight.
Low: -7
Wind: NW increasing to 12-22 MPH; Wind Chills: -15 to -30

Mahalo that, mutha. Here, voting in the primary is an honest to goodness accomplishment. If you go out, you have to do things to make sure you won't die. Seriously. So I'll put on a couple of coats, a stocking cap over my baseball cap, a pair of wool socks, and some mechanics coveralls. I'll make sure I have some coffee brewing for when I get back and I'll walk -- that's right, walk -- six or seven blocks to the High School to vote. Uphill, both ways.

As I say, it's an accomplishment.

After the Hawaii story, I learn that Castro has stepped down. I hope it doesn't suck up all the newsroom air -- anyone who thinks this represents a real change for Cuba is dreaming. Raul Castro's a big fan of Fidel. If there's any changing that's going to happen here, America's going to do it. And not until this president is gone. Our current policy toward Cuba is as irrational as it is ineffective. Unless you want to argue that the embargo finally worked.

So who will win Wisconsin? That's anyone's guess. Agence France-Presse explains the situation:

White House Democratic hopeful Hillary Clinton fought Monday to stave off a wave of momentum for rival Barack Obama before a primary contest in Wisconsin that will hinge on a large working class vote.

Obama, on a roll after eight consecutive victories in the nomination race, hopes to extend his winning streak in the Midwestern state as well as in caucuses in Hawaii on Tuesday.

Polls showed a tight race in Wisconsin with the Illinois senator enjoying a narrow five-point lead over the former first lady, according to a new survey by Research 2000, US media reported.

The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday and showed 11 percent of voters remained undecided.

A five percent lead is less than half the undecided vote -- that 11% will decide this election. That is, assuming Research 2000 is right. Earlier polling showed Obama higher -- a 10% lead or better. We'll see how it all shakes out. I'm guessing Obama here, but probably not by much. If Clinton wins, she wouldn't be able to call it an upset. But so far, it looks like Obama owns Milwaukee and leads in Madison -- win those two cities and history shows you get the state. I'll be able to doublecheck how that perception panned out tomorrow.

Down the road, there's the Texas primary on March 4. In that race, Associated Press is saying the two are in a virtual tie. CNN/Opinion Research puts that at 50% Clinton, 48% Obama. With a margin of error of 4.5%, that too is anyone's game at this point.

And John McCain? Here in Wisconsin, he's a shoe-in. Huckabee is delusional. There is no hope. But expect the trend of Democratic voters statistically burying Republican voters to continue. A completely anecdotal story shows what I mean.

In Madison, The Capital Times endorsed Obama. This kicked off a flurry of letters to the editor either congratulating TCT's editorial board for their wisdom or knocking them for their foolishness. One letter would be pro-Obama, the next would be pro-Clinton. There were no pro-McCain letters. There were a couple of Paulistas and, I think, one Huckabee backer. But not a single McCain supporter wrote in for their candidate. Judging by the ad buys, McCain's been pumping money into Madison. I've seen a Huckabee ad twice in my life. Last night, I saw McCain's ad twice in the same commercial break. It seems to be money wasted. He should be spending his money farther north -- the Fox River Valley, where Green Bay lies frozen -- and to the west around LaCrosse. I don't think he should sweat liberal-land. He may win his primary here, but that's not going to carry over to the general election. In 2000, Bush came in third behind Ralph Nader in one Madison district and in 2004, Kerry won 70-some percent. President Bush has never bothered to show his face here -- we are a lost cause.

Another problem for McCain is that Wisconsin is an open primary -- you can belong to a party, but it doesn't make any difference when you go to vote. Just about everyone here can claim to be an independent. All a Republican has to do to jump the fence is to fill out the ballot that way. Given the trend of independents going Democrat, this means that McCain can expect votes only from the GOP true believers. He's going to get buried.

So that's Wisconsin today, where -- as I write -- the thermometer outside reads 0 degrees even. Let's see Hawaii manage that.

--Wisco

Technorati tags:politics; Hawaii; elections; 2008; Republican; Democrat; Independent; primary; Mike Huckabee; Ron Paul; John McCain; Hillary Clinton; Barack Obama; Wisconsin votes today -- cheeseheads freeze their curds off