Team Romney Tries One Last Desperate Lie

Yesterday, I wrote a Tumblr post titled, "Is the '12 presidential race essentially over?" In it, I pointed out that pollsters and analysts have been describing a pretty static race for a while now and that Barack Obama was favored to win. "It’s a little more than a week to the election, there are like five undecided voters left in the country..." I wrote, "Nothing left to do but sit on the edge of the bed and try not to wrinkle your suit while you wait for your big election night date."

The Romney ad above seems to back up my argument. Currently running in Ohio, Taegan Goddard calls the ad "a fairly clear indication -- despite surrogates claiming Romney is now leading in Ohio -- that he's more likely running behind as the polling averages show." Why? Because it's pretty much a complete reversal of the story he's been telling Ohioans, while being a steaming pile of BullsMitt.

ThinkProgress counts "four myths" in the Romney ad. The one that leaped out at me was "Obama took GM and Chrysler into bankruptcy." This from the guy wrote wrote an op-ed in the New York Times titled, "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt." The rest are about as egregious, that just struck me as the most glaringly obvious.

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See How Much Romney-Ryan Love the 47%? See? See?

On the off-chance that you're not familiar with the what I'm going to call the Youngstown Clean Pot Massacre, here's the skinny. If you are familiar with the story and don't need a refresher, go ahead and skip the following blockquote. Frankly though, I found the real-world absurdism of the story almost as hilarious the second time around.

Mediaite:

Republican vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan is in hotter water than it takes to wash dishes that are already clean over his ill-advised Saturday photo-op at a Youngstown, Ohio, soup kitchen. After pool reporters revealed that Ryan’s visit to the St. Vincent De Paul Society Dining Hall consisted of washing dishes that were already clean, and after the hall had emptied, the president of the charity blasted the Ryan campaign for “ramrodd(ing) their way” into the soup kitchen, and added that ““The photo-op they did wasn’t even accurate. He did nothing. He just came in here to get his picture taken at the dining hall.”

On Monday night’s The Ed Show, host Ed Schultz tore into Ryan over the artifice involved in his visit to the soup kitchen, which included washing dishes that were already clean, and later speaking only for still cameras, not reporters, with some people who “appeared to be homeless,” wondering just what Ryan could have been saying to them.

“I wonder what Ryan told those men he talked to,” Ed fumed. “He probably didn’t tell them he plans to turn Medicaid into a block grant program, to voucherize Medicare, to slash billions from food assistance programs.”

Brian J. Antal, president of the Mahoning County St. Vincent De Paul Society, took the Romney-Ryan campaign to the woodshed last night over the incident. Soup kitchens are not for photo ops, he said. "We're a faith-based organization; we are apolitical because the majority of our funding is from private donations," Antal told the Washington Post. "It's strictly in our bylaws not to do it. They showed up there, and they did not have permission. They got one of the volunteers to open up the doors."

So Ryan walks into a clean kitchen, pulls clean pots and pans out of the cupboards, and pretends to scrub-a-dub-dub. He puts the kitchen's fundraising at risk, by making the organization running it seem partisan and seem to endorse Romney-Ryan. And it's all so hamhanded and transparent that reporters can't help but figure out what's going on right away. The Youngstown Clean Pot Massacre was not a carefully planned out operation.

So the question is, why? Why stage this photo-op at all?

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Big Trouble for Mitt Romney

This is not good news for Team Romney.

Quinnipiac:

President Barack Obama is over the magic 50 percent mark and tops Gov. Mitt Romney among likely voters by 9 to 12 percentage points in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University/ CBS News/New York Times Swing State Poll released today.

Voters in each state see President Obama as better than Gov. Romney to handle the economy, health care, Medicare, national security, an international crisis and immigration. Romney ties or inches ahead of the president on handling the budget deficit.

Matching Obama against Romney in each of these key states - no one has won the White House since 1960 without taking at least two of them...

In this race, Mitt Romney needs -- absolutely needs -- Ohio and Florida to win. MSNBC's First Read notes that Romney begins a bus tour today that "has to do more than stop the bleeding for Romney in Ohio; it has to be the beginning of a turnaround for him in this state. Losing Ohio isn’t checkmate, but it’s close." Losing Florida and Ohio? That is checkmate -- and Mitt can't tour both states at once. So he seems to be piling all his chips on Ohio.

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GOP Sees All Their Hard Work Pay Off at Ballot Box

Last night was not a good night to be a Republican. Off-year elections in several states went terribly wrong for them, as GOP policies -- when to put a vote -- were rejected again and again.

L.A. Times:

Ohio voters overturned a controversial law that would have weakened public employee unions and Mississippians rejected an antiabortion "personhood" initiative in elections Tuesday that suggested at least a pause in the strong conservative Republican trend that swept Democrats from office in 2010.

In the marquee fight of the day, a successful push by organized labor resulted in the repeal of Ohio's new law that would have sharply curbed collective bargaining rights for 350,000 government workers. The restrictive labor measure had been passed by the Republican Legislature and signed by newly elected Republican Gov. John Kasich, who led the unsuccessful effort to defend the law.

In Maine, a bill that would've ended same-day voter registration was defeated -- by a healthy margin. Russell Pearce, the man behind Arizona's anti-immigrant law, lost a historic recall. Incumbent Democratic Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear sailed to reelection. In Iowa, Democrat Liz Mathis won a special election that -- had she lost -- would've given control of the state Senate to Republicans.

Kind of seems like the wind is shifting, huh?

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Pro-Labor Occupiers About to Win Big

It's not difficult to show the evolution of the "town hall mobs" of rightwingers angry healthcare reform to the Tea Party. It was basically the same people who listen to the same radio shows and fell for largely the same BS. But where the town hall rowdies were focused on one issue, the Tea Party came about when complaints broadened to other issues. "Healthcare reform sucks!" became "healthcare reform sucks -- and I like guns and Obama's a Kenyan Muslim and when government spends money on anyone other than me, that's just like Nazi Germany!"

Sure, both the town hall mobs and the Tea Party were astroturf creations, but look at why people joined. What happened was that people with other concerns were drawn to the coverage the town-hallers were getting and wanted in on the action. The movement grew and the focus broadened.

There's a clumsy parallel on the left with the Occupy movement. It may just be that I'm from ground zero, but I see an evolution from the Wisconsin union protests and the ongoing recall effort to Occupy Wall Street. People saw the occupation of the State Capitol, thought about their own issues, and wondered if that would work for them as well. The left was electrified by the Wisconsin activists and the "hit the streets and take over" method of protest spread out to other states.

One of those states would be Ohio, where Gov. John Kasich and state Republicans jammed through a union-busting bill similar to Wisconsin's. But Ohio is not Wisconsin -- the laws are quite different -- and state Democrats were able to put the question up to the voters. Where Wisconsin only has recall as an option, Ohioans are able to put repeal on a referendum. And that referendum is not going Kasich's way.

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McSellout

I've been writing about John McCain a lot lately, but let's face it, John McCain's not talking about John McCain and someone has to. Lately, when the media talks about John McCain, it's to repeat some attack McCain's made on Barack Obama. Lately, with the help of a media more concerned with sensationalism than substance, McCain has been able to be a serious candidate for president who doesn't seem to stand for a whole lot.

One of the worst aspects of this whole thing is that no one's looking at the fact that McCain doesn't stand for a whole lot. Mr. Leadership generally leads by following. His opinions go where the votes are or the money is. McCain is a candidate openly for sale.

An example; in June, John McCain opposed a Constitutional amendment to make same sex marriage illegal. He didn't support marriage equality, but he took what would've once been the default Republican opinion on issues like this and said it was up to the states to decide.

But, as I said, that was once the default. That was before Bush's 2004 campaign that highlighted the Homosexual Menaces' Threat to America. McCain was behind the times; the new default was to panic over same sex marriage, foretell the destruction of the family and, with it, the end of America. Under Bush, the GOP has become the party of fear and if your reaction to an issue isn't to try to get everyone to wet their pants over it, then you aren't a real Republican.

So John McCain made a trip to see the Apostles of Republican Jesus, that they might impart their wisdom upon him and anoint him a True Republican. And, lo, so it was done.



McCain had made very public splits from two of the Apostles -- Rod Parsley and John Hagee. It was time to appease the religious right. McCain met with the Apostles of Republican Jesus on June 26. The next day, the scales fell from Baghdad Johnny's eyes and he saw the light. He was now sufficiently freaked out over gay marriage.

Press release from ProtectMarriage.com:

United States Senator John McCain today announced his support for the California Protection of Marriage initiative on the state's November ballot, leaders of the ProtectMarriage.com campaign announced. In an email received by the ProtectMarriage.com campaign, Senator McCain issued the following statement:

"I support the efforts of the people of California to recognize marriage as a unique institution between a man and a woman, just as we did in my home state of Arizona. I do not believe judges should be making these decisions."

A complete U-turn. One that had absolutely nothing to do with the fact that he'd just dumped influential Ohio nut Rod Parsley and the Ohio Republican machine was displeased. It had nothing to do with the fact that the Apostles of Republican Jesus he spoke with the day before were also from Ohio. It had nothing to do with the fact that McCain needed the swing state to have any chance in Hell. Of course, if it wasn't for those reasons, the real reasons he'd abandon a position he'd held for years is anyone's guess.

To be fair, McCain isn't exactly known as an actual activist on the issue of marriage inequality -- a little flip-flop for Ohio's corrupt political machine was no big deal. McCain's activism is saved for another high profile flip-flop -- offshore drilling. McCain had previously opposed offshore drilling, but then this happened:



Public Campaign Action Fund tells us, "McCain has received more than twice as much money from the oil and gas industries in the 2008 cycle than in all other cycles since 1989." Presto-chango-rearrango, McCain's an activist for oil companies.

And some of his donors are really digging deep to give McCain money. McClatchy Newspapers tells us the story of one drilling true believer:

Alice Rocchio is an office manager at the New York headquarters of the Hess Corp., drives a 1993 Chevy Cavalier and lives in an apartment in Queens, N.Y., with her husband, Pasquale, an Amtrak foreman.

Despite what appears to be a middle-class lifestyle, the couple has written $61,600 in checks to John McCain's presidential campaign and the Republican National Committee, most of it within days of McCain's decision to endorse offshore oil drilling.

Not surprisingly, some people find this story a little incredible. It appears that Hess is money-laundering campaign contributions through employees, to give beyond the legal maximum a corporation could give to McCain -- that'd be the same McCain you might remember as a former campaign finance reform champion.

In all, Hess employees have given McCain a subsantial portion part of the $1.2 million he's collected from Big Oil. 73% of that has come after McCain reversed his position on offshore drilling.

In fact, Hess employee contributions to McCain look stupid-suspicious when you get up close. It's like looking at a crooked accountant's books and seeing that he doesn't have a lot of imagination. TPM Election Central supplies the specifics:

J. Barclay Collins, Hess Corp., Attorney, $28,500, 19-Jun
John B. Hess, Hess Corp., Executive, $28,500, 24-Jun
Susan K. Hess, Homemaker, Homemaker, $28,500, 24-Jun
Norma W. Hess, Retired, Retired, $28,500, 24-Jun
John J. O'Connor, Hess Corp., Executive, $28,500, 24-Jun
Lawrence Ornstein, Hess Corp., Senior VP, $28,500, 24-Jun
John Reilly, Hess Corp., Executive, $28,500, 24-Jun
Alice Rocchio, Hess Corp., Office Manager, $28,500, 24-Jun
John Scelfo, Hess Corp., Senior VP of Finance, $28,500, 24-Jun
F. Borden Walker, Hess Corp., Businessman, $28,500, 24-Jun

"Norma W. Hess is the widow of oil magnate and company founder Leon Hess, and Susan K. Hess is the wife of Hess chairman and CEO John Hess.," we're told. All exactly the same amount, most on the same day -- you'd think they'd at least try to hide it.

After all this, where McCain's position had previously been to oppose drilling, he told an audience yesterday, "[W]e need to drill here and we need to drill now."

Drill, drill, drill, drill, drill, drill, drill, drill, drill, drill, drill, drill, drill! Do it now! Freak out! Run! Go, go, go, go, go! For the love of freakin' God, don't stop to think for a second -- just run and drill!

McCain endorsed the Republican stunt in Washington -- a phony session while Congress is in recess. And he did this despite the fact that people in Washington are beginning to forget what Baghdad Johnny looks like -- he hasn't been at work since April.

"Let's start working for the American people and not for ourselves," McCain said yesterday.

That's good advice, John -- why don't you take it?

-Wisco

Technorati tags: politics; elections; 2008; Barack Obama; religious right; Ohio; oil; energy; corruption; law; John McCain's pretty much for sale

Where a Knock Out was Needed, a Draw was Called

Last night's Democratic debate in Texas ended in what most observers are calling a draw. Clinton managed to get a hit in, but it didn't play. Trying her plagiarism charge for the nth time, Clinton said, "[L]ifting whole passages from someone else's speeches is not change you can believe in; it's change you can Xerox."

The statement was rewarded with some booing.

The statement also illustrates a deep problem with Hillary Clinton's campaign -- it seems to be ignoring its own misfires. The plagiarism angle was test-flown in Wisconsin and it crashed. Yet, here she is, trying the failed line again. The campaign is not adjusting.

The reaction of analysts to Clinton's performance in the debate is that things look bad. Political Wire helpfully gathers a few:

Chuck Todd, for MSNBC: "Clinton ended the debate on a VERY conciliatory note and for the first time sounded like a candidate who realized she might not win. It must be an odd position for her but the confidence she exuded for just about the entire debate disappeared there at the end. I wonder if showing some vulnerability might actually help her with some undecided voters."

Marc Ambinder for The Atlantic: "This was the night where we all learned that Hillary Clinton understands the moment in history we are in, and that she is smart enough and gracious enough to realize that her party is more important than personal vanity, that there are things she just cannot say about Obama because it would hurt him in the fall, and that more likely than not, she will not win the nomination."

ABC News' Rick Klein: "If all you're doing as a voter is making a judgment based on this debate, it's easy to come away supporting Clinton. But that's not how the election works -- the fact is Sen. Clinton was looking for ways to recast the debate tonight, and we didn't get that. A few new lines on a few old arguments do not result in any changed dynamics, not by my judgment. If you're an Obama fan, you're generally pleased with the night."

Walter Shapiro in Salon: "The very tentative guess is that Hillary Clinton still managed to inspire voters in Texas and Ohio to look again, perhaps for the last time, at the candidate whom they are poised to jettison in favor of Barack Obama."

The only good news is that last from Shapiro -- and even then, the assessment is that Clinton has one last chance. The problem is that she needs a lot more than that. Not only does Clinton need to win Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania, but she needs to win them convincingly. That seems unlikely.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll shows that the polls in at least one key state are moving in the wrong direction for team Clinton. That poll puts Clinton at 48% in Texas, with Obama at 47%. ABC tells us that Texas is still about 25% undecided. Obama is closing.

"If she wins Texas and Ohio I think she will be the nominee. If you don't deliver for her, I don't think she can be. It's all on you," former president Bill Clinton told voters in Texas.

In Ohio, her margin is wider, but nowhere near a safe win and nowhere near what she needs to win. In that race, Clinton polls 50% and Obama gets 43% -- with a third undecided. As I pointed out earlier this week, Obama owned the undecided in Wisconsin. Ohio's and Wisconsin's electorates are similar. And the amount of time between now and March 2nd is time enough for the Obama ground game to eat up a good chunk of that undecided vote.

As Marc Armbinder suggests, the even Clinton sees the hurdles she must clear and has to be seriously considering the very real possibility that they're too high to clear. In her closing at the debate, Clinton -- albeit indirectly -- spoke about the possibility of her defeat. "Whatever happens, we’re going to be fine. You know, we have strong support from our families and our friends," Clinton said. "I just hope that we’ll be able to say the same thing about the American people, and that’s what this election should be about."

If that sounds a little like a concession to you, there's a reason. When John Edwards suspended his campaign, his speech included the line, "But I want to say this to everyone: with Elizabeth, with my family, with my friends, with all of you and all of your support, this son of a millworker's gonna be just fine. Our job now is to make certain that America will be fine."

At this point in time, I don't see this campaign going all the way to the convention. I don't see a brokered convention. And I don't see Texas and Ohio as a "last stand" for Clinton, so much as a "Hail Mary." If she pulls this campaign up and out of this dive, it'll be the political comeback of the last fifty years -- at least. I wouldn't count her out just yet, but I wouldn't put any money on her winning either. Those chips go to Obama.

Last night's debate was considered by most to be the closing arguments in this campaign. Clinton doesn't seem to offer any real changes to her message. At this point, the whole thing looks like Obama's to lose -- which seems unlikely. "The chances of Obama doing something that's going to cause a major problem are about as low as her doing something that will turn it around," Democratic strategist Bill Carrick told AP's Rob Fournier. "When you start pressing to come back, it's usually the person who's behind who makes the mistake."

Still, no one in history has ever had a crystal ball that worked right. The unforeseen is unforeseen for a reason. The Clinton cause is not entirely hopeless, but the grounds for optimism are fading fast.

--Wisco

Technorati tags: politics; elections; 2008; primary; Democrat; Texas; Ohio; Pennsylvania; Barack Obama; Hillary Clinton's last chance