Budget Politics and Chicken Game Theory

Think of budget politics as a game of chicken. In chicken, the player most willing to accept the consequence of not veering off is the player who will win -- every time. In other words, the one most willing to destroy themselves is the one most certain to win. In budget politics, this has been Republicans. They've been willing to drive the nation off a cliff rather than accept compromise, while Democrats have been unwilling to let disaster happen. So dems caved to Republicans every time.

The problem for Republicans is that this strategy has burned them once. They have destroyed themselves. Crack up like they did with the debt ceiling and you start to lose your nerve. "All or nothing" doesn't seem as smart after you've learned that the alternative to all is nothing plus a busted nose. Party discipline begins to fray and those who question the wisdom of kamikaze politics begin to break ranks. Meanwhile, the other player becomes emboldened.

Washington Post:

Democrats are making increasingly explicit threats about their willingness to let nearly $600 billion worth of tax hikes and spending cuts take effect in January unless Republicans drop their opposition to higher taxes for the nation’s wealthiest households.

Emboldened by signs that GOP resistance to new taxes may be weakening, senior Democrats say they are prepared to weather a fiscal event that could plunge the nation back into recession if the new year arrives without an acceptable compromise.

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Romney's Latest Attack Just Another Lie

It's becoming very clear that Mitt Romney plans to run a campaign of lies. If you check out Steve Benen's posts on the subject at the Maddow Blog, you'll see that the sheer number of Romney lies is really pretty astonishing. That Romney is a shockingly dishonest man is the most overlooked story of the 2012 campaign. It ties in with his constant readjustments on the issues; Mitt has his finger in the wind and his eye on polling, constantly trying to tell people what they want to hear -- even when it's a plain lie. It's one of the things that really disturb me about him. He clearly wants the power of the presidency very, very badly -- probably more than any candidate in my lifetime -- but he doesn't seem to want to tell anyone why. It's clear he's willing to do or say whatever it takes to get it. What he'd do with it remains a mystery.

On the bright side though, he and his campaign haven't been stellar examples of competence. He's constantly tripping over himself. The real Mitt often shows up at the least opportune moments. But it's easy to focus on the gaffes to the distraction from the lies.

Somewhere in our recent history (i.e., during the Bush administration), it became a terrible thing to call a lair a liar. The media shies away from pointing out untruths, preferring instead to simply report the things a public figure says -- and then report how that figure's political opponents respond. If the only information you ever got was from the mainstream media, you'd live in a world where there's no such thing as facts and lies, only differences of opinion.

So it shouldn't surprise anyone to learn that a photo circulated by Romney spokesperson Ryan Williams (posted above) isn't the most honest depiction ever.

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GOP on Gas Prices: 'Quick! Look Over There!'

We've seen this movie before. Ahead of a big holiday that traditionally involves post-winter travel, gas prices begin to rise. They rise in the spring, ahead of Memorial Day and Easter. Then later, they'll raise again before the Fourth of July. We've been spared the worst of this lately, because of a poor economy. Gas prices need to respond to the economy and low demand means low prices. The price of a good or recovering economy is higher prices. It can't really be helped. And, of course, there's always the "genius of the free market" -- in the form of speculators -- artificially inflate the price of oil.

In our present circumstance, speculators are the biggest problem. Oil prices are actually falling -- and prices at the pump rise. If you ever needed any evidence that the price of gas is inflated, there you go.

Still, it's the president taking the beating here.

Washington Post:

Disapproval of President Obama’s handling of the economy is heading higher — alongside gasoline prices — as a record number of Americans now give the president “strongly” negative reviews on the 2012 presidential campaign’s most important issue, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

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Tucker Carlson v. Journalism

Tucker Carlson has an "exposé" out about Media Matters for America. Or at least that's what the wingnuts are calling it. I'd always thought that "exposé" wasn't a synonym for "stuff everyone already knows." What we learn is that Media Matters is on a crusade to discredit Fox News. This stunning revelation comes after MM's founder David Brock told Politico that his group was waging a "war on Fox" back in March of last year. So big news; Tucker's investigation discovered that Media Matters is waging a war on Fox.

I feel strangely unrocked by this revelation.

This seems to be an ongoing thing for Carlson's Daily Caller and today we learn that Media Matters had considered hiring investigators to look into the personal lives of Fox personalities and executives. The right may see this as shocking, but the rest of us will recognize it as investigative journalism. And, of course, yesterday Tucker reported that David Brock is kind of a weird guy -- which (assuming it's even true) means he investigated Brock's personal life. As always, it's only OK when conservatives do it.

We also learn that Media Matters is often in contact with the Obama administration. This is apparently terrible. Imagine if the Bush administration had hired talent from Fox News. I'm sure Tucker would be shocked -- if he had any memory at all.

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GOP's Economic Sabotage Backfiring

I want you to try -- really try -- to see the following statement as rational or logical; "A payroll tax cut extension is too important for stimulating the economy to be allowed to expire after just two months. Therefore, we need to pass a year-long extension or nothing."

OK, if you got that to make any damned sense, let me know how you did it. Because I can't get it to work at all. If an extension of the payroll tax cut is so important that it absolutely must last for a year, in what insane universe does it make sense that no extension at all is preferable to a mere two months? Further, what's preventing you from coming back in two months and demanding an extension for the remaining ten? I take this argument and I turn it over and bend it and twist it and smack it with a hammer and I just can't get it to fit within any system of logic or rationality that I know of.

As a result, I'm forced to conclude that it's stupid. Those are the rules, I don't make them up. An argument that makes no damned sense at all is just a stupid argument.

And this stupid argument is the basis for the latest roadblock thrown up by House Republicans; It's a super-important, must-pass tax cut that they love so damned much that they're willing to kill it unless it's born perfect.

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The Worst Possible Deal?

Let's start with a look at the real world.

Reuters:

More consumers had trouble making payments on credit cards and other debts during the first three months of the year due to higher food and gas prices, an industry report said on Thursday.

The American Bankers Association said the data showed a downturn from prior quarters and described the most recent quarter as a "soft patch."

"Consumers are feeling insecure about the economy and whether their financial resources can carry them through until conditions improve," ABA chief economist James Chessen said in a statement.

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Press Largely Ignores John Boehner's Gibberish

What if the Speaker of the House gave a speech that was just all wrong? And what if the Speaker gave that speech to a bunch of people who knew it was all wrong? Throwing out crazy statement after crazy statement, to the bewilderment of his audience, lecturing those who make their living, in part, by knowing better? Would that be a scandal?

Apparently not. John Boehner did just that, giving a speech filled with economic mumbo-jumbo to a group of Wall Street executives. Relying on GOP talking points, Boehner spoke to Economic Club of New York Monday, and received "a cool reception," according to The Hill.

"The Speaker's stand drew little reaction from the banquet hall of Wall Street executives," the paper reported, "who offered polite applause at the end of Boehner's speech but sat in silence through his demands on the debt limit."

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Ryan Plan Flops, Republicans Dither

The Paul Ryan budget plan has so far been a disaster for Republicans. Polling shows that the central idea (what pundits and talking heads call "brave" and "serious") to end Medicaid and Medicare through privatization is extremely unpopular. An ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that 78% oppose privatizing Medicare (with 65% "strongly" opposed) and 59% feel the same about Medicaid. Worse for the GOP, a vast majority of Americans back what Republicans see as sacrilege -- 72% back increasing taxes on households making $250,000 or more annually.

So, with Republicans being your typical finger-in-the-wind types and the prevailing wind direction being so obvious, the solution should be clear, right? Find which way the crowd is marching, then grab a flag and march in front of them. That's "leadership."

Except there's one little problem. According to the report, "Support for raising taxes on the wealthy falls below a majority in only a few groups, e.g., people who call themselves 'very' conservative, conservative Republicans and strong supporters of the Tea Party political movement."

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